2009 US Open

I've been watching the US Open this week, and I still haven't gotten a read yet on whether or not R-Fed will win his preposterous sixth consecutive US Open title. To put this in perspective, I don't think any player in the open era has won ANY tournament six consecutive times in like 40 years, much less a grand slam. Federer played well last night against a very game opponent - one, Simon Gruel - and skipped into the third round where he will play an opponent he's defeated the last 13 times they've played.

The top players in male game are SO good that occasionally, watching these tournaments feels like peaking in at an NBA game in the 2nd quarter or at a NASCAR race in the first 100 laps. You have little dips and turns, but what really matters in this tournament is the 2nd week where the top 10 start matching up against one another. Just two years ago, it seemed like Rafa Nadal and Federer were head and shoulders above everyone else. Then Federer hit a skid where he DIDN'T win every grand slam, and Nadal started having problems with this knees. Players like Andy Murray and Del Potro took the opportunity and raised their games. Andy Roddick is experiencing a career renaissance of sorts (although, that's what they said last time he made his run to the US Open final when Jimmy Connors was his coach). Novak Djokovic, the only player NOT named Federer or Nadal to win a grandslam in the last four plus years, has slipped a little, but he's still dangerous. So...when Murray plays Del Potro in the quarterfinals, or Roddick runs up against Djokovic...these are the matches that I want to see. It feels like the REAL tennis hasn't started yet.

Which brings me to Federer and his chances of winning a 3rd grand slam this year. In the back of my head, I've thought that this was the year he won't get it done. I don't know why. Even in a disappointing 2008 (for him), Federer managed to win in NYC. Part of Fed's fortune can be attributed to the fact that he's never had to play Nadal at the US Open. In fact, Nadal still hasn't made it to a US Open final. The grueling hard court season on top of the clay and grass tournaments have left Nadal's knees weak. Last year, he ran out of gas to Andy Murray. The year before, he got beaten by Ferrer. I think James Blake may have taken him out the year before that. This year, however, we're set up for a Nadal/Federer semi-final. Nadal looks thinner and his movement yesterday was fantastic. I'm eager to see whether or not Federer has convinced himself that a win against Nadal late in the clay court season was the turning point in their head to head matchups. The ghost of Robin Soderling hangs heavy over Fed's accomplishments this year, almost a steroid-less asterisk. Would Fed have won the French had Soderling not knocked off Nadal? Would Fed have won Wimbledon had Nadal been there to defend his title?

The statistic that always impresses me about Federer is his string of semi-final appearances in grand slams. He's made 22! consecutive grandslam finals. In that period, I think he's been to 20 of the finals (losing only to Nadal in Paris and Djokovic in Australia). That's incredible.

What I like about Federer's run this year is that he HAS to play Nadal if he wants to win. Nadal is in a particularly tough corner of the bracket, but I don't think anyone can take him down. What Fed has to hope is that the grueling matches can take enough toll on Nadal to make him vulnerable. When Nadal is in peak physical condition, he forces you to beat him with winners. I've never seen another player make someone hit as many clean winners in order to defeat him. He gets to seemingly everything, forcing you to hit three or four more shots than it would take against even a top 50 player. That's what made Murray's win against him last year so impressive. Murray stepped for an entire 5 set match and just kept blowing him off the court. I've always thought this grinding style didn't fit Fed that well. He's too used to players getting intimidated by him. But that means that Federer will really have to step things up if he wants to win, finding reserves of greatness within his game that weren't there in Australia. Although even that is a bit melodramatic. I mean, he took Nadal to 5 sets, so it wasn't as if Australia was a blow out.

I'd like to see these two heavyweights knock each other out and then give someone else a chance at the title. I love watching Murray play, and I would like Roddick to win too. My bet tho? The winner of Federer/Nadal. I'm going with Federer.